International media reported that Vietnam newly-elected General Secretary cum State President To Lam will visit the United States in September 2024, with the purpose of attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
At the same time, the source also said that it is highly likely that Lam will meet President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the meeting, to discuss related issues between the two countries.
In his position as General Secretary, Lam said that he will focus on removing institutional obstacles, with the aim of making Vietnam rich, strong, democratic, fair, and civilized. That is the reason why, after State President Lam became General Secretary, there were some opinions that he would have political reforms, possibly destroying the old model, replacing it with a new political model with its own identity.
The reappearance of former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, alongside Lam, also attracted attention. In the past, Dung was a figure considered to have a reformist tendency, pro-Western and pro-US.
According to some opinions, if reform is promoted, the new General Secretary and State President Lam will have two options:
- The Chinese political model: Building a Socialist rule of law state, with the Communist Party of China as the sole leading one of the country.
- The Russian political model, under President Putin: A state that is nominally a democratic rule of law state, with a multi-party political system. However, in reality, Putin has stifled democracy, and destroyed the opposition, but still values the majority will of voters in elections.
With the new General Secretary To Lam firmly in control of the security system and tight social control, there are opinions that Lam may choose the Russian model.
Although, according to some assessments, Lam and former PM Dung are considered reformists. Why was a model of democratic rule of law and pluralism not mentioned and chosen by Lam?
I would like to affirm that this is impossible in a political system that still reeks of “Sovietism” like in Vietnam today.
Ignoring the political factor, Vietnam has always been dependent on China, under feudal dynasties, and even modern politics. Unlike civilized and progressive countries in the Asian region, Vietnam currently has a land border of about 1,350 km with China, in the North. If Vietnam follows the political model of Western democratic countries, it can only exist for a “moment.” For sure, the Beijing leadership will not sit still, they will find an excuse to provoke, to eliminate that political system.
Not to mention, the Party’s high-ranking leadership is seriously divided, in which the “pro-China” faction holds the majority. As soon as Beijing gives the green light, there will be a coup, and China is just waiting for such an opportunity, to control Vietnam more tightly.
Scholar Truong Nhan Tuan commented: “Does Vietnam need a Putin or a Dinh Bo Linh?” According to the author, Vietnam has always followed the Chinese model. In the near future, the probability is 95% that Vietnam will continue to follow this model, and Lam will be a Xi Jinping of Vietnam. At the same time, the France-based observer Tuan affirmed that Vietnam will never side with the US.
That is why the United States tries its best to woo Vietnam in every way, but the Hanoi leadership is still “capricious.” Not because Vietnam acts like a beautiful girl, but because the Vietnamese leadership clearly understands that leaning towards the US means losing power to another faction in the Party.
So, if there is an opportunity to establish a Presidential Republic in Vietnam, will Lam do it? It can be affirmed that this is impossible – as long as the Communist China still exists.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
