After being officially “honored” by the Central Committee to become General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam on August 3, former Minister of Public Security General To Lam immediately declared: “Vietnam will enter a new era, the era of national advancement.” At the same time, he also made a commitment to lead the country towards a better future.
According to some opinions, Vietnam needs a reformist figure to shake off all the remnants left by late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. The person who can meet this requirement is General Secretary To Lam. In fact, there has been some information and hope that Lam will be a reformist figure.
Some assessments say that Lam has a personality similar to former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. Both Lam and Dung are former police officers, and are pragmatic in foreign affairs and economics.
After Lam became party leader, in a very short time, former Prime Minister Dung appeared next to him. This made those close to the late General Secretary Trong very unhappy. The reason is that they really disliked Dung – who was previously accused by Trong and his faction of “leading a group of profiteers, allowing corruption to run rampant, and intending to abandon the Party’s ideology.”
The changes in Vietnam’s political scene since Lam took power have shown that his efforts to become a leader with absolute power, like Xi Jinping, were not without obstacles.
It seems that there was an “invisible hand” that deliberately prevented Lam from exercising absolute power. On a deeper level, the forces against him want to stop the process of rapprochement and the gradually warming relationship between Vietnam and the United States. They use the excuse of being steadfast in the path of Socialism, and in the name of the Party, to oppose the reform policy of General Secretary Lam.
However, in the opening speech of the Central Comittee’s 10th Plennum, Lam still emphasized the word “breakthrough.” Many opinions believe that these are signs that he will continue to promote his reform.
Is it possible that Lam will continue the process of “unifying” the two positions of General Secretary and President, to continue to create “institutional breakthroughs”? Even though at the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly, in October 2024, the re-election of the position of State President will be carried out. This is 99.99% certain.
Moreover, after the 10th Plenum, Lam is said to be losing ground, under pressure from factions loyal to General Secretary Trong, centered on pro-Beijing military generals.
The military faction, in terms of numbers, is currently considered the largest in the Party, accounting for about 13% of the Central Committee members. At the same time, it is a force that has long competed with the police faction, and can control the power of Lam and his faction.
This shows that there seems to be a new power struggle between the military and the police, similar to the previous contest between Trong and Dung. Therefore, to achieve the ultimate goal, General Secretary Lam still needs to satisfy other factions in the Party, especially the military faction, by reconciling and sharing the benefits of power and rights with them.
It is believed that Lam proactively ceded the position of State President to the military faction, which is a smart way for him to please this powerful faction.
However, according to some speculations, Beijing is unlikely to let him go. Therefore, the story that General Secretary Lam will carry out comprehensive reforms in Vietnam is unlikely to become a reality.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
